Uncertainty Abound: United States 2015

Earlier this morning, the United States' department of labor released its employment figures for the month of March (link here).  Unfortunately, despite the positivity towards the figures by the labor secretary, there is actually quite a bit of uncertainty as a result of them.

"For the last few months, there has been a bit of a mystery in the economic data. The American job market seemed to be roaring, with the nation adding around 300,000 jobs a month. But most every other measure of the economy was softer, suggesting more of the slow growth that has been all too typical the last several years. Eventually, something was going to have to change. Either job growth would need to slow down to match the economy, or economic growth would need to speed up to keep pace with the terrific jobs numbers. That adjustment happened in March, according to jobs numbers released Friday. It adjusted, though, not in the direction that Americans hoping for a stronger economy would prefer. (link here)"

If you take a look at the monthly Change in Jobs graph (link here), March is nowhere near the previous months in terms of job growth.  Additionally, it was announced that estimated figures for January and February were incorrect and that job totals were 69,000 less than thought. Also, "durable goods orders declined in February while retail sales were weak despite increases in household disposable income. Although the trade deficit narrowed in February, the strong dollar, particularly compared with the euro, has made American goods expensive for foreign consumers and hurt the country’s exports. Growth in manufacturing is also off to a slower start this year than some economists had hoped."

Despite this poor report, there are still positives.  The job market is still going strong even with the drop in reported jobs and there are signs that wages are increasing.  Consumer confidence and housing prices are also slowly recovering.  What this all means is that it is difficult to pin down exactly how the economy will perform for the rest of 2015.  There are signs going in both directions as to whether it will be a strong economic year or one that will be more similar to the last few years.  It will be interesting to see how it plays out.