Thursday, April 20, 2017

Is climate change going to take down the housing market in Florida?

Read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-19/the-nightmare-scenario-for-florida-s-coastal-homeowners

Consider the following from the article linked above:

          "When Cason first started worrying about sea-level rise, he asked his staff to count not just how much coastline the city had (47 miles) or value of the property along that coast ($3.5 billion). He also told them to find out how many boats dock inland from the bridges that span the city’s canals (302). What matters, he guessed, will be the first time a mast fails to clear the bottom of one of those bridges because the water level had risen too far. “These boats are going to be the canary in the mine,” said Cason, who became mayor in 2011 after retiring from the U.S. foreign service. “When the boats can’t go out, the property values go down.” If property values start to fall, Cason said, banks could stop writing 30-year mortgages for coastal homes, shrinking the pool of able buyers and sending prices lower still. Those properties make up a quarter of the city’s tax base; if that revenue fell, the city would struggle to provide the services that make it such a desirable place to live, causing more sales and another drop in revenue. And all of that could happen before the rising sea consumes a single home. As President Donald Trump proposes dismantling federal programs aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions, officials and residents in South Florida are grappling with the risk that climate change could drag down housing markets. Relative sea levels in South Florida are roughly four inches higher now than in 1992. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts sea levels will rise as much as three feet in Miami by 2060. By the end of the century, according to projections by Zillow, some 934,000 existing Florida properties, worth more than $400 billion, are at risk of being submerged. The impact is already being felt in South Florida. Tidal flooding now predictably drenches inland streets, even when the sun is out, thanks to the region’s porous limestone bedrock. Saltwater is creeping into the drinking water supply. The area’s drainage canals rely on gravity; as oceans rise, the water utility has had to install giant pumps to push water out to the ocean. [...] Sean Becketti, the chief economist at Freddie Mac, warned in a report last year of a housing crisis for coastal areas more severe than the Great Recession, one that could spread through banks, insurers and other industries. And, unlike the recession, there’s no hope of a bounce back in property values."


Who do you think will lose the most from damaged property due to flooding/climate change? Will it be the government's responsibility to pay for their loses? Do you see a possible solution or is it too late?

6 comments:

  1. The only fisible solution is to immediately implement policy halting the emission of greenhouse gasses. As this is not going to happen at a federal level with the current administration, it is important the State of Florida takes drastic steps as quickly as possible.

    I am not sure who should have to pay for the loses. I don't believe it's the government. Maybe insurance companies?

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  2. I agree with Nick. I'm not 100% but this seems like something the insurance companies would have to deal with. But then that brings up insurance policies and what everyone is actually covered for, I took 2 insurance classes at Olivet as a freshman... insurance is a mess haha

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  3. Tommy raises an interesting point. Given the prediction that some houses will be submerged in water by the end of the century, will risk averse insurance companies even want to insure them?

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  4. I think home owners will lose the most due to the change in climate. I think insurances companies will not insure the homes that will be affected due to the climate change because they are already at risk. I think the only possible way to solve this is what Nick said, and implement a policy that tries to reduce the amount of green house gases and pollution. That will cause climate change to progress at a decreased rate and hopefully prevent a lot of damage to homes in Florida.

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  5. I agree with both Tommy and Chido. I doubt that the insurance companies would be willing to pay people if there are already predictions.

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  6. So when all of those properties are inundated by water, and the coastlines need to be updated and rebuilt to accommodate the higher water levels... who gets those jobs? I'd say the losers are well-tread ground at this point. A better question is who wins (or rather, is less worse off)?

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