The latest talk of the town has been about the U.K.'s referendum in June 23rd, which will determine whether or not the nation remains in the E.U. Many have been writing the Brexit off as highly unlikely, however, the most recent aggregate pollings shows 46% stay/ 43% nay, which is extremely close. Even the Scottish indepence referendum wasn't this close at only 55% to 45%. Here are three links: the first is a breakdown of what's happening, the second is a criticism of leaving, and the third is the tracker for the poll. Enjoy!
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/bank-of-england-governors-brexit-warning-is-nonsense-says-minise/
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
How likely do you think a Brexit is? What effects would it have on the economies of the U.K. and E.U. and the future of the E.U. in general?
Considering the current numbers and that the difference is only three percent between staying and leaving (without accounting for standard deviation and those who are undecided), I think a Brexit could very well happen. Economically I am not sure of the long term effects of that a Brexit will have, but I do think that it will cause some tension between the U.K and the rest of the E.U. However, since the U.K does not use the euro I feel like that would be dramatically hurt. However Mark Carney brings up an important point regarding the risk involved in leaving the E.U.
ReplyDeleteI'm shocked at how many people are saying they are going to vote to leave. Almost every academic study is showing a significant economic loss if they leave, and parliament is almost entirely against it. I'm also interested in how this disagreement is going to reshape UK politics. Because so many people are for it and the only major party for it is United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), I would expect them to do better this next election, especially if the referendum doesn't pass. Just like how the Scottish National Party (SNP) dominated in this past election after the Scottish referendum failed.
ReplyDeleteI'm not seeing any real economic reason to leave the E.U. aside from the fact that there are significant fees involved with being a member. The advantages that each country receives from fewer trade barriers is still considerably large, even if there is some degree of economic turmoil in Europe at the moment. Very interesting article, and an even more interesting situation.
ReplyDeleteI really am not informed enough to determine the effect of Britain leaving the European Union or whether or not they should stay or leave. However, I am very curious to see how this vote will play out. If they decide to leave, could more countries follow suit?
ReplyDeleteI also think that there would be more disadvantages when Brexit actually happens, but perhaps in the long run, if UK can somehow stay in closed economy, then it could be better...? I guess that is impossible because of various factors, one of them being geographical characteristics in Europe.
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