Towards the end of yesterday's class there was a small discussion held about the future of the GOP after Trump's nomination. Some people declared this year to be the beginning of the end of the Republican Party while others speculated of a fracturing into more parties. Here's an article from the Economist that attempts to predict what will happen in these next few months:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21698251-donald-trumps-victory-disaster-republicans-and-america-trumps-triumph?fsrc=scn%2Ffb%2Fte%2Fpe%2Fed%2Ftrumpstriumph
What do you think with happen to the GOP? What parts do you agree or disagree with in the article and do you have any suggestions of your own?
It is too early to tell who will win the general election. Anything can happen. As for disaster for the GOP, if Trump was not the presumptive nominee I would agree with you. A theoretical contested convention going to a candidate who did not get a majority of the votes would piss off Trump supporters and spell disaster for the GOP. This did not happen. Trump has enough time to get enough people behind him if he so chooses unlike Hillary who is still waiting for Bernie Sanders to drop out.
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting point, nearly half of the voters in the West Virginia Democratic primary who backed Bernie Sanders say they would vote for Republican Donald Trump in the fall general election.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote
I agree with Kenny in that it is too early to predict who will win. I keep hearing that now that Trump is the presumptive nominee, Hillary will easily defeat him in the general election. But Trump has proved people wrong time and again this election cycle, so he can't be underestimated. I think the GOP has certainly taken hits this election cycle so far, compounded by the almost comical debates with 10+ candidates on one stage. It made them look absolutely foolish and ridiculous as a party in my opinion, and weakened their positioning among voters. That being said, I think with the right candidate in the future, the party could very well rebound.
DeleteI don't think there's any guarantee yet that there will be some major change in the GOP. In down ballot races the establishment, conservative republicans have been doing fine. So if Trump loses and in 2020 a strong establishment candidate has emerged this may just be a weird blip in history.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Kenny and Spencer in the sense that it is no sure thing that Trump will when the election. If Trump does not win the the general election I do not think there will be drastic changes made, and I think 2016 will be an anomaly for the GOP. However, if he somehow someway manages to win the general election I think some changes will be made, the extent to which is up in the air.
ReplyDeleteRegardless if changes are made, it is hard for me to see the GOP will fracture or never win another election, especially because I do not think that we will ever see someone like Donald Trump run for president again. I cannot imagine another person with his background and ridiculous remarks making it this far in the presidential election process.
I know the GOP is not happy with Trump as a nominee. The Koch brothers do not like him either. If Trump does end up winning, I think the survival of the GOP depends on the future candidates. There are people who back the republican party no matter what and those people who sway back and forth based on candidates. So, I think the GOP will end up being fine in the long run. There might be new regulations about who is running or how much money of their own they can use to finance their election.
ReplyDelete