Cruz won Wisconsin big, but the more important news is how he did it. He outperformed his polling average by 9.1 percent. Was he able to convince Trump voters to change their minds? Nope, Trump also outperformed his polling average, but only by less than 1 percent. Cruz got his votes from a combination of Kasich (who under performed by about 6 percent) and from late deciders (where he won 53% of votes). It seems like people coalesced around the candidate which had the best chance to beat Trump, which builds on a pattern. For instance, in Ohio Kasich clearly outperformed his polling average in a similar way, with Cruz and Rubio both falling short and winning the late deciders.
Is it possible that this really is an organized effort to prevent Trump from winning the nomination by any means necessary? Would coordinating millions of people like this really be possible? Are people who support Kasich really willing to throw their ideology away and vote for Cruz just to avoid Trump as president?
Is a strategy like this enough to force a contested convention and allow the Republican elite to stop Trump from winning the nomination?
From casual reading, it seems that there will be a contested Republican Convention in June. I think Trump will still do very well in the New England states. However, I don't think the math adds up unless he is able to recover from his loss in Wisconsin. If there is a contested convention, the delegates are not necessarily bound to Trump after the first vote. This would allow Cruz, Kasich, or even the ghost of Ronald Reagan to become nominee.
ReplyDeleteIt might be kind of fun to see the ghost of Ronald Reagan.....
ReplyDeleteI agree with Kenny, I do not think that Trump will be able to win the nomination before the Republican Convention, especially with all the controversy his created recently. However, while it is clear that the majority of the Republican party do not want Trump to win the nomination, I am doubtful if Kasich voters are voting for Cruz solely to stop Trump, perhaps they were doing it to prove another point. Recently Trump said that if Kasich dropped out he would easily get all of Kaisch's voters and win the election. Maybe some Kasich supporters voted for Trump to show that he would not even be considered their second choice. If that is the case, it might be able to make Trump just short of the required amount delegates before the convention. Therefore, while it will be close I do not think Trump will win the nomination, and it will be won by someone else at the convention. However, if that happens I wonder what Trump's next course of action would be and what his supporters would do?
ReplyDeleteAs an international student, I do not know much about the U.S. election. However, I think the polling result might not reflect reality because the polling results might be biased. The survey is based on house phone, not mobiles. These days, not many people utilize their house phone as much as they did mobile. The responders who answer through house phones are likely old people who stay at home. Therefore, I think the difference between the polling and the reality might come from statistical limitation.
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