So far, the scenarios that we heard of global economic catastrophe, were mainly for 2012, but new interpretations of worse “prophecy” are yet to come for 2013 this time. The famous economist Nouriel Roubini has made another prediction. He believes that in 2013,”the perfect financial storm will hit the world.” The Nobel laureate economist warns as economies around the world slack, the geopolitical risks and the growing debt crisis in the euro area is growing.”The 2013 is the year that that economic finances will worsen… that is when we will have the perfect global storm,” says the economist. Rubini, who forecasted the financial crisis that erupted in 2008, highlighted 5 players who could take the global economy off track. As Roubini says, the factors are: the worsening debt crisis in Europe; increasing taxes and cutting spending in the U.S. which may push the world’s largest economy into recession; the hard reality shock of the economy in China; further slowdown in emerging markets and a military confrontation with Iran. Lets hope this time Roubini’s predictions fall empty handed. But we have a long way to go to at least to see a “global” rainbow after the storm. But not only Roubini is forecasting a 2013 peak in economic crisis. The World Bank forecasts the global economic crisis to peak next year and urges countries likes Indonesia to prepare to face the danger. The World Bank of course is recommending certain measures. The World Bank has forecasted the Indonesian economy to increase by 6.1 percent. The debt crisis in Europe pushed international funds to exit from Indonesia. This hit the country’s rupiah against the U.S. dollar and imported inflation. So is the crisis unfolding through Europe? The financial crisis has, indeed, elements born in Europe. Looking at certain countries in the present and future, we can see why Roubini and others forecast negatively about the financial crisis. Italy and Spain are good examples. I am not mentioning Greece here since the country’s story seems like old news. The country is already in deep trouble and if there is any severe news in 2013, I expect them to be related to the countries that exit from the euro. Also, I am not mentioning Cyprus since it is a small island and a small economy and will not affect the monetary policy of Europe a lot. But indeed, this shows that these crises are already under way. Some people also believe that a financial crisis will soon climax in some way. The next crisis may be political, not in the sense of whether a regular politician is going to become prime minister or not, but in the wider sense of whether Europe’s political upper class can hold power, or whether new political forces are going to appear that will completely reshape the European political scene. If this happens, it will be by far the most important consequence of the European financial crisis. So far, we have seen some changes in personalities in the countries at the centre of the crisis. In Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou stepped down, while in Italy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has now resigned. Though these retirements have represented a formal change of government, they have not represented a formal policy change. Of course both of these were results of the collateral damage of the financial crisis. On the other side of the Atlantic, U.S economists at the Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, and top forecasting firms mostly have the same opinion that, for the rest of the year, the economy will be a bit confusing moving along with the same sluggishness that it’s been showing until now. With the November elections and the fiscal problems that the Congress needs to deal with, by the end of the year, it seems, some more light will be shed on the uncertainty issue. Looking closely at politics, the implications for the presidential campaign are important. President Obama needs to persuade voters that the economy is clearly improving, while Mitt Romney and his fellow Republicans will benefit from general disbelieve of Obama’s economic policies. In other parts of the world, the IMF cut its 2012 growth forecast for China to 8.0%, down from 8.2%, and said it now expected growth of 8.5% next year, down from 8.8%. It also sharply revised down its growth projections for India to 6.1% this year from 6.9%, and decreased its 2013 forecast to 6.5% from 7.3%. Also, Africa’s growth is still seen at a strong 5.4% this year and 5.3% in 2013, as the region mostly remains relatively shielded from the problems of the rest of the world. Also, the IMF said growth in the Middle East will be stronger this year as key oil producing countries boost production and Libya’s economy rebounds from conflict in 2011, but it held its forecast for next year at 3.7%. So it is left to be seen what will happen! As a general remark, the world economy is in trouble and it is very difficult will overcome any problems. What ideas will be able to prevent the "perfect financial storm?" Do you think the assessment of the storm is a valid one?