Prominent entrepreneurs such as Ray Kurzweil and Elon Musk have some very optimistic things to say about solar energy.
http://climatecrocks.com/2014/01/17/the-weekend-wonk-thinking-about-solar-with-elon-musk/
Ray Kurzweil, the current director of engineering at Google, says:
“Solar panels are coming down dramatically in cost per watt. And as a
result of that, the total amount of solar energy is growing, not
linearly, but exponentially. It’s doubling every 2 years and has been
for 20 years. And again, it’s a very smooth curve. There’s all these
arguments, subsidies and political battles and companies going bankrupt,
they’re raising billions of dollars, but behind all that chaos is this
very smooth progression.”
Do you think this exponential progression in solar power can continue? If so what are the implications? Can solar power the planet in the near future? Will solar energy be a good investment/business?
I have been consistently surprised and impressed by the things Elon Musk has been doing. I did not realize that a network of charging centers for Tesla cars already exists that would allow somebody to drive from LA to New York. There is a lot of room for growth in this industry, and I agree with Musk when he says that eventually we will have to move away from fossil fuels. The business model for SolarCity is also very intriguing to me, and I think it is proving itself to be successful.
ReplyDeleteThe key weakness in the arguments of Elon Musk and Ray Kurzweil is the application of Moore's Law. It is incorrect to apply Moore's Law to solar energy according to the laws of thermodynamics. It is true that solar energy is growing at a rapid rate (I wouldn't say exponentially) at the moment but it will level out soon due to the limits of thermodynamics. Here is the bigger question: is the limit of thermodynamics high enough to allow solar energy to become the primary provider of energy?
ReplyDeleteI am very optimistic about the growth of solar power and think it will continue on this trend. A great example of this is the "Solar Roadways" blog post from a few days ago. Whether or not you think that particular innovation will prove successful, I think it represents an overall shift in the energy market.
ReplyDeleteElon Musk makes a very good point about the branding. As long as he is able to sell solar power as a brand, I think his business model will work. Tyler is right that eventually it will level of because of limits of thermodynamics, however I believe the growth will remain exponential for many years to come because the prospect is immense and we are far from being efficient at using solar energy.
ReplyDeleteI like to hear about how solar power is growing, it is a great source of energy. However, my understanding is that the current technology of solar panels is not completely efficient and leaves behind some pollution.
ReplyDeletei agree that there is tremendous (and positive) potential for growth in the industry namely because of the gradual consumer attitude shift in the market. my question is: do emerging economies have the ability to be a part of this revolution in the same way as advanced economies are? my hunch is no, because of technological advances.
ReplyDeleteI know of many African countries trying out solar energy and even though it is on a small scale is is promising. I believe it is one of the very few sustainable options and hence worth the investment. I don't know about solar energy causing some kind of pollution but i'm sure the pollution is not as much as the other energy sources, and with time and investment the process will become more efficient.
ReplyDeleteThere is definitely a great potential for a long term growth within this industry. However, as most comments above have shown, the current technology has not yet proven to be very effective. I don't think that the costs to society (in regards to pollution) have been fully explored. There is need for more research to be conducted in order to determine the effects this energy will have on the environment, in the long run. I think this investment will be a very good investment for countries that have more favorable conditions ( sunlight all year round), especially most developing countries.
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